Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessments, Implications, Prospects
Background and Scope
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had a profound impact on the international system and global economic relations. Moreover, for the first time since the dissolution of the USSR and the disbandment of the Warsaw Pact in 1991, Europe’s security was jeopardized, and a sovereign European state was “punished” for its independent choice and the right to refuse models of development and behavior imposed on it from the outside. The depth of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the world economy is no less deep than on the system of international relations. Firstly, the conflict created the so-called. a multi-crisis, superimposed on the economic problems that already existed before it (primarily related to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic). Essentially, its negative repercussions on the global economy were significantly magnified because the world had not yet fully recovered from prior problems. The uniqueness of the current crisis is also determined by the fact that for the first time in modern history, access to world energy markets was limited to such a large supplier of resources (not only oil and gas) as Russia. Another major exporter and transit country of raw materials, Ukraine, became a victim of the war. As a result, the process of reformatting the global supply chains of both oil resources and other raw materials was launched. Finally, the conflict led to a “weaponization” of the global economy and hydrocarbon trade. Both Russia and its opponents in the sanctions war began to actively use economic trade measures against each other, nullifying the ideas of a liberal market (at least) in the medium term and forcing the world to think about how politically dangerous dependence on one type of resource can be. Policy-wise, several other factors contribute to the complexity of the current situation. On the one hand, the war in Ukraine is far from being over and its results are far from being predictable. Despite the initial optimism of Ukrainian supporters (when in the spring – summer 2022 Kyiv successfully repelled the initial Russian aggression in the spring and summer of 2022), the results of the 2023 campaign indicate that a so-called victory for Putin is also possible. Meanwhile, the expected series of executive and legislative elections in the US and EU may bring to power in these countries forces that will ultimately be more willing to make a deal with Moscow rather than help Kyiv. All this makes forecasts of the future situation very complex and varied.
And, yet, after almost three years of the conflict, there has been no unanimity among the international players and political forces with regard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. A wide range of opinions on this issue continues to exist in the world: from the blind rejection of Russia as a subject of international relations in selected countries of Eastern Europe to the equally terrifying justification of its actions by some political forces in the Middle East, Latin America and Asia. The differences in assessments are especially clear between the forces of the Global North and Global South. This dichotomy is not just a clash of two positions (condemning Russia and conditionally pro-Russian), strengthened by the reluctance of the parties to look at the situation from the position of the opponent. It has a direct impact on the policies of countries, thus, creating both opportunities for Russia to be more effective in its confrontation with the West, and new points of tension in relations between the countries of the Global South and Global North.
Under these circumstances, it appears both timely and crucial to examine the ongoing processes and address the conflict in Ukraine, its ramifications for the current system of international relations and the issue of diversity in the vision and assessment of this war by different players.
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessments, Implications, Prospects
On October 26, 2024, the Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS) at Georgetown University in Qatar (GU-Q) hosted a one-day conference in collaboration with the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University titled “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessment, Implications, and Prospects.” This conference brought together leading international and regional experts to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its implications for…
