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SUMMARY:The Nuclear Question in the Middle East Working Group II
DESCRIPTION:On January 9–10\, 2011\, CIRS concluded the second meeting of its “Nuclear Question in the Middle East” working group. The working group participants were invited back to Doha to deliver their chapter submissions and to critique each others’ findings and conclusions. The papers will be collected by CIRS in an edited volume titled\, The Nuclear Question in the Middle East (Oxford University Press/Hurst\, 2012). Seven international experts on the field discussed a variety of topics related to the study. \n\nThe participants stated that nuclear energy will always be considered of dual character and although many countries claim that they will establish a peaceful civilian program\, there always remains suspicion that the program can be used for purposes of proliferation. Because a civilian nuclear program can be modified into a military one regardless of the original intention\, there are a number of strict international nonproliferation laws and treaties that countries must adhere to in order to allay international suspicions. \n\nDeliberating different models of regime survival strategies\, the participants indicated that these have a bearing on why some countries have nuclear programs\, while others steer clear of such projects. According to such “nuclear logics\,” countries that wish to internationalize and integrate into the global economy by attracting foreign investment tend to avoid acquiring nuclear capabilities. Inward looking models\, however\, tend to want to acquire nuclear programs as they are less dependent on the global economy and as such do not adhere to international treaties. Further to macro level analysis of states’ nuclear ambitions\, the participants also discussed the more detailed minutiae of such projects. As part of this analysis\, the participants spotlighted the social psychology and the role of individual leaders in nuclear decision-making. Thus the group concluded that personal characteristics of decision-makers are key variables in understanding why and when states pursue nuclear power. \n\nThe nuclear programs of many countries of the Middle East were presented as case studies\, including Israel\, Egypt\, Libya\, Turkey\, Iran\, and the UAE. Countries such as the UAE\, for example\, cannot rely on their own oil supplies for their high energy intensive petro chemical and water desalinization industries. The energy and electricity demands in these countries are extremely high. Many argue that these countries must pursue a combination of hydrocarbon\, renewable energy sources such as hydro and solar\, as well as nuclear energy in order to meet their needs. In order to be in full transparency\, the Abu Dhabi nuclear power program has been established in accordance with international treaties and protocols and by openly inviting foreign know-how and observers. \n\nConcluding the second day\, the participants discussed some overall themes that emerged from the meeting and a general theoretical overview of the nuclear issue in the Middle East. As an overarching framework\, the chapters will address the issue of Middle East proliferation/nuclearization within the scope of the Iranian and Israeli shadows as well as the opaque relationship between civilian and security programs.  \n\nParticipants and Discussants:\n\nZahra Babar\, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in QatarAvner Cohen\, Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsJohn T. Crist\, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in QatarMehran Kamrava\, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in QatarMustafa Kibaroglu\, Bilkent UniversityThomas W. Lippman\, Council on Foreign Relations and Middle East InstituteGiacomo Luciani\, Gulf Research CenterMari Luomi\, Finnish Institute of International AffairsSuzi Mirgani\, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in QatarMaria Rost Rublee\, University of AucklandDebra Shushan\, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in QatarEtel Solingen\, University of California\, Irvine \n\nClick here for the working group’s agendaRead more about the research initiative \n\nArticle by Suzi Mirgani\, CIRS Publications Coordinator
URL:https://cirs.qatar.georgetown.edu/event/nuclear-question-middle-east-working-group-ii/
CATEGORIES:Environmental Studies,Focused Discussions,Regional Studies
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Moscow:20110110T080000
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SUMMARY:A Changing Kingdom: Saudi Arabia in 2030
DESCRIPTION:Thomas W. Lippman\, former Middle East bureau chief of The Washington Post and adjunct senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Middle East Institute\, was invited to Doha as part of the CIRS “Nuclear Question in the Middle East” working group meeting. In conjunction with the meeting\, Lippman delivered a CIRS Monthly Dialogue on January 10\, 2011. on the topic “A Changing Kingdom: Saudi Arabia in 2030.” \n \n \nThe subject of Lippman’s lecture revolved around likely future shifts in the religious\, strategic\, and economic principles of Saudi Arabia. There has been much literature written on the kingdom\, especially since September 11\, 2001\, but\, he argued\, most of these are exaggerated accounts of radical Islam and extremism. In his new book\, Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Perilous Future of an American Ally\, Lippman advocates a more sober approach to the country’s future\, rather than dwelling on events of the past. Over the next two decades\, Lippman argued\, there will be seismic demographic and economic shifts that will affect all aspects of life in the kingdom. “Saudi Arabia has to make some very difficult and very expensive decisions in order to sustain economic growth and to maintain a basic standard of life for the population\,” he said. \n \n \nListing some of the demographic and economic trends that are likely to occur\, Lippman noted that “the population will grow probably by 70%\, but it will grow at a slower rate than in the past.” The reason for this\, he said\, was because “women are collectively better educated than any previous generation and in Saudi Arabia\, as anywhere in the developing world\, better educate women marry later and have fewer children.” Because more women will enter the workforce\, working women need a certain degree of personal mobility and will need to be able to drive legally. In the long run\, he said\, “Saudi Arabia cannot afford to educate all those women as it is doing\, at great cost\, and not recoup any of the economic output from that investment.” \n \n \nFurther\, the current cost of living in Saudi Arabia is already extremely high and will only increase over the next few years. As such\, it will become increasingly difficult to sustain large families in such an inflationary environment. Although Saudi Arabia is traditionally oil-rich\, “the population has been growing faster than the GDP\,” and so\, Lippman argued\, “the country will face the beginnings of what will be a difficult and expensive struggle to provide the population with basic necessities such as food\, water\, housing\, and electricity.” A major consequence of the housing shortage is that the entire traditional way of life in Saudi Arabia\, which is “based on living in the family compound\, or in the village\,” is going to change and we will see more people living in high rise apartment buildings in urban areas. \n \n \nLippman predicted that on the basis of the trends he discussed\, “Saudi Arabia in twenty years\, or at least by mid century\, will inevitably be a more open\, moderate\, and educated country. It will be more like the rest of the developed world.” This is especially true since “the greatest test of the government and its ambitions was the Al Qaeda uprising” and its ultimate failure because of lack of popular support. \n \n \nIn conclusion\, Lippman cautioned that unless there are some serious changes made\, Saudi Arabia will be overwhelmed by its own demography\, economy\, and climate. These changes are not exactly a matter of choice; “the whole way of thinking about life and urban development is going to be inevitably transformed by the forces of demography and economics in Saudi Arabia.” \n \n \nLippman has been studying and writing about Middle East affairs for thirty five years. A frequent guest and commentator on television in the United States and in the Middle East\, he is the author of five books about the Arab world\, Islam and U.S. foreign policy and of several journal articles on related subjects. \n \n \nArticle by Suzi Mirgani\, CIRS Publications Coordinator
URL:https://cirs.qatar.georgetown.edu/event/changing-kingdom-saudi-arabia-2030/
CATEGORIES:Dialogue Series,Race & Society
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